So with their mom out of town the boys have been busy. Not just in trying to wear me out either (although that would explain why I keep falling asleep on the couch). Aside from the periodic repetition of, 'where mama?' from Sam they seem okay with the absence as long as they get their phone calls. Matthieu occasionally picks up the phone and asks what his mom's number is.

Yesterday Matthieu went with his grand-parents to Upper Canada Village. Despite his usual pre-activity attitude of 'I don't want to go', 'nobody asked me', 'old stuff is stupid' etc. he had a great time and loved going on the train, the horse ride (apparently his favourite part was candy...). He was exhausted upon arrival and asked to be carried into his room to continue the car-induced nap.

Meanwhile Sam helped me out with shopping (or at least pricing building materials). He was very good and seemed to enjoy being asked his opinion. He told me he's already planned what he wants to do for his mother upon her return. He patiently sat on my lap during haircut time and enjoyed his 'treat' of lunch at McD. He did his afternoon napping in the car. Occasionally I would ask him what he was doing and he would quietly reply, 'sleepin daddy', followed by snoring noises.

Together the boys behave pretty much as they usually do; alternating between playing together and fighting (followed by seeming puzzled and giggling when I tell them to stop).

Anyway, everyone has survived the first half of Mama's (or Momma's if they're talking English) trip. Let's see how the rest goes!

Son: some odd question that only a 4 year old would come up with.
Dad: 'Who would know that?'
Son (matter of factly): 'God.'
Dad: 'How should we ask him?'
Son: 'We need to go on a higher plane.'
Dad: '...pardon?'
Son: 'We need to go on a higher plane to talk to God.'
Dad: '...ummm. What?'
After a bit, I realize that 'Higher plane' sounds an awful lot like, 'High airplane'.

Thanks Lu.

Completely unnecessary but most appreciated.

Even forced me to make a new icon.....

This is doing the rounds and I'm sure she would enjoy sinking her carnivorous teeth into it.

BACON EXPLOSION

So what's going to happen? Narrow escape for the government (with a small contingent of Ignatieff or Rae supporters getting the flu)? Election again (unlikely but possible)? Coalition of Liberals, NDP and Bloc Québecois (for as long as that lasts)?

Even if the prime minister prorogues, it merely delays one of the above 3 scenarios.

So I find myself curious as to how this will play out in the medium to longer term. A lot of that will depend on the actions taken by the various players (and how the public reacts to same).

My starting point in trying to figure out what actions will happen is motivation. Of course trying to figure out another person's heart is a dubious exercise, but here's what I've got so far:

Harper - wanted to sink the Bloc (and therefore pick up his missing seats in Québec next time) with the added benefit of a few more years of Liberal weakness. He'll do what he can to hang on.

Layton - power, at almost any price. Nothing necessarily wrong with that, but what price will he be willing to pay? And who really pays it?

Dion - redemption. Maybe revenge. Still, the opportunity to humiliate Harper was probably too great to resist. How far will he be willing to go and will he try to hang on in the face of other Liberal leaders in waiting? Will that create a lot of behind the scenes squabling?

Ignatieff and Rae - likely very mixed feelings....if this was a stable coalition then hey, one of them might be PM in a few months. On the other hand a brand new Liberal leader would be a sorely tempting moment for other parties to bring down the government....

Duceppe....what is his motivation? We know he doesn't much care who's running Canada as he wants out. The Bloc's stated position in the past was to make Parliament unworkable (permanent trip to the dentist ring any bells?). What price is he going to extract and how much are Layton (power, at almost any cost, remember) and Dion going to be willing to pay?

That's the really important question in all this. Duceppe will be looking for advantage in this. That does not come with a smoothly functioning government of Canada and a recovering (or technically still growing) economy. He needs to be the cat among the pigeons; it's why he's there. What does he want? Why does he want it? Will the other coalition leaders give it to him (they have to or the coalition falls)? What will be the ultimate price paid by the country?

Michaelle Jean - probably wishes she could stay out of town. She has a series of difficult decisions to make; contrary to a lot of commentary, there is very little historical precedent for any of this. Most related events had more to distinguish them from this situation than to liken them.

So it seems Harper was right. Elizabeth May has endorsed strategic voting in order to elect a Liberal government, just as he predicted she would.

For what it's worth, as someone who's second choice is the Greens and wants to see them do well, this is very disappointing. I figured the prime minister was off base on this one and that May would keep her eye on the long game of building a strong Green party. She has just betrayed some of her own candidates in my eyes.

People have the right to vote strategically if they so choose. That's just as legitimate as choosing to vote for a losing cause (either as a protest or to help fund a smaller party). As someone who gives a lot of time and effort to political campaigns, something about telling your own supporters not to vote for your candidates just doesn't sit right....

This could set them back years.

Recent things heard in my car, around the dinner table and at the supermarket (I'll leave it to your imaginations whether they came from the 3 year-old, the 1 year-old or the wife)....

"Daddy, how do you regenerate?"
'?'
"You know, like grow back an arm."...


"Four. Four. Fff. Ffff. Fffff. F. Four starts with an F!"
"Two. Tuh. Tuh. Tu...T. Two starts with a T!"
"One. Wuh...Woh....Wwww. One starts with a double-U!"
'ummm....'

"I want those."
'That's too bad.'
"Why do you say that?"
'Because you can't have them.'
"Why not?"
'For the best reason in the world son. Do you know what that is?'
"....no."
'Because, I said so.'
"....Daddy, you're not helping!"

There was also something about sitting on giant sausages that did not mean at all what ran through my mind at that moment.

This could be interesting...doing what Garth Turner wouldn't, former Liberal, then independant, MP Blair Wilson is now a Green Party MP. The GP's first MP.

Why does this matter? Well one of the excuses for keeping smaller parties out of the televised leaders debates has been that only parties with elected MPs get a slot. This may be somewhat arbitrary but in defence of the networks, some kind of cut-off is needed. So we may now see Elizabeth May in the debates (in a few weeks?).

Now Mr. Wilson may never get to actually sit as a GP MP as Parliament is unlikely to be back in session before the election call, so it may not be enough. I suspect that the pressure from the 10% of GP supporters will be sufficient interest for the networks to want her there.

Now whose advantage is it for her to be there?
- The population of course as we get more coverage of the issues from the GP perspective.
- The Green Party also, of course. This can only help them.
- Not the NDP or the Liberals (or Bloc?) who in theory are pulling from the same pool of voters; this could hurt them.
- The Tories? Might further split their opponents' votes. Might also highlight their perceived weakness on the environment...assuming they don't have something in mind (could the regulations that were due this fall end up looking more dramatic than expected?).

This could have a major impact, but how? Let's just say it's a trigger of a wildcard.....

Sam's on the way to the children's hospital for his eye duct 'surgery'. Poor kid isn't allowed to eat anything this morning nor drink anything after 5:15. Hopefully he sleeps in the car.

Once Matthieu is dropped off when daycare opens I will join Samuel and Karine. Should be quick and easy, still it is surgery under general....

Warning - economic terms flow freely below.....

I sent the following quick response to Henry Aubin's column in today's gazoo.

He was writing on the advantages of a carbon tax over a cap and trade system and I wanted to synthesize a few of my thoughts on the issue that seem to be missing from most media coverage.


( Read more... )

Any flaws in my reasoning/anything to add?